Market Stock

Stock market news live updates: Stock futures rise with first presidential debate, stimulus in focus – Yahoo Finance

Emily McCormick

Stock futures drifted higher Tuesday evening as investors considered the first presidential debate and continued to eye developments among congressional lawmakers for further fiscal stimulus.

A key labor market report is also due out Wednesday morning, along with a couple highly anticipated direct listings for tech companies Asana and Palantir.

The three major indices closed out Tuesday’s session lower, giving back some of Monday’s strong advances as September’s wave of selling retook markets. As of Tuesday’s close, the S&P 500 was on track to post a 4.7% monthly decline – its worst since March.

Only the materials sector has clung to gains in the blue-chip index for September to date. The energy, communication services and information technology sectors were the laggards, as a month-long correction in previously high-flying tech names took out these sectors’ leadership positions. The utilities and industrials sectors were on track to post losses for the month as well, but still outperformed the broader market.

With five weeks to go until Election Day, market pundits have warned of a potential for additional volatility conjured up by political uncertainty, compounded with ongoing concerns over the coronavirus pandemic and strain still facing the US economy.

“I think markets are really nervous into those 36 days [before the election] and one of the things we have to think about is, when does nervousness price in the worst is yet to come? When do you think the worst is priced in? At least from June to August highs, if you give up two-thirds of those gains … that would be 3,224 [on the S&P 500],” Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research, told Yahoo Finance. “We think that that’s when you start to price in the worst, because you’ve given up two-thirds of the rally that you’ve had since June, and I think the world is better than it was since June.”

Despite the pullback, Lee added he does not believe stocks are ultimately in a “down trend.”

“There’s still $4.3 trillion in cash on the sidelines. I don’t think in the history of any financial market in the world do you ever have a top when there’s 20% of the equity market sitting in cash,” he said. “Investor cash — that’s excluding the private equity cash, the record cash held by corporates too. So you’ve got tons of dry powder. People are bearish.”

On the economic data front, both ADP’s private payrolls report out Wednesday morning and the Department of Labor’s September jobs report out Friday – each the last before the election – are expected to show fewer than 1 million jobs added back in September, as the pace of the economic recovery sputters.

To that end, congressional lawmakers and Trump administration negotiators have been attempting to come to a deal to pass in the near-term another virus relief bill. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Tuesday discussed the $2.2 trillion Democratic stimulus proposal, according to a Bloomberg report, and are poised to hold further talks again on Wednesday. Still, most economists and policy pundits are bracing for no new stimulus legislation to pass before the general election.

9:50 p.m. ET Tuesday: Futures push higher with first presidential debate under way

Contracts on the three major indices were higher Tuesday evening as the first presidential debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden was under way. In the first about 45 minutes of the debate, the discussion, moderated by Fox News anchor Chris Wallace, covered topics including the Supreme Court, and whether Trump’s pick Judge Amy Coney Barrett should be moved to be confirmed before the election, the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, the candidates’ health-care plans and the labor market.

Here’s where futures were trading, as of 9:50 p.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,344.75, up 11 points or 0.33%

  • Dow futures (YM=F): 27,493.00, up 85 points or 0.31%

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 11,368.5, up 30.75 points or 0.27%

6:11 p.m. ET Tuesday: Stock futures open lower

Here were the main moves in equity markets, as of 6:11 p.m. ET Tuesday:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,332.00, down 1.75 points or 0.05%

  • Dow futures (YM=F): 27,389.00, down 19 points or 0.07%

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 11,332.00, down 5.75 points or 0.05%

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 18: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 18, 2src2src in New York City. The Dow fell more than 1,2srcsrc points today as COVID-19 fears continue to roil world markets. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 18: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 18, 2020 in New York City. The Dow fell more than 1,200 points today as COVID-19 fears continue to roil world markets. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

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Market Stock

Stock Market Rally Attempt Continues, As Nasdaq Leads; ServiceNow, Veeva Are Stocks To Watch – Investor’s Business Daily

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Market Stock

Stock market news live updates: Stock futures trade mixed after selloff – Yahoo Finance

Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday evening, but mostly hugged the flat line as equity investors took a pause from the heavy selling earlier in the day.

The three major indices renewed September’s selling during the regular session. Another day of heavy tech declines dragged the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to their lowest closing levels since late July. The blue-chip index ended the day 9.6% below its record high from early September to come within striking distance of entering corrective territory, or a pullback of at least 10% from a recent closing high.

Equity investors are digesting a confluence of concerns, including increased uncertainty around the US presidential elections, signs of a growth slowdown, dimming hopes for fiscal stimulus and worsening trends in Covid-19 cases in the US and Europe, even as drugmakers race to develop an effective Covid-19 vaccine. JPMorgan Chase analysts said Tuesday that a contested US election is now their baseline view, given the expected rise in postal voting and President Donald Trump’s baseless but repeated allegations that the voting method is more conducive to fraud.

On stimulus, a number of Federal Reserve officials doubled down on assertions that it remained up to congressional lawmakers to unleash more fiscal stimulus to encourage a continued economic recovery. These remarks were spearheaded by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who appeared before Congress for a second day of testimony on Wednesday and reiterated that more support was likely to be necessary, even as lawmakers remain at an impasse over how much fiscal stimulus should be unleashed and to whom it should be directed. In separate appearances and media discussions Wednesday, other officials including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren made similar remarks.

Investors will receive another update on the state of the labor market Thursday morning with the Department of Labor’s weekly initial jobless claims report, which is expected to affirm the slowdown in the economic recovery. New jobless claims are expected to have come in at 840,000 last week, improving modestly from the 860,000 reported during the previous week.

6:30 p.m. ET Wednesday: Stock futures trade mixed after selloff

Here were the main moves in equity markets, as of 6:30 p.m. ET Wednesday:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,234.00, up 2.75 points or 0.09%

  • Dow futures (YM=F): 26,728.00, up 43 points or 0.16%

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 10,821.75, down 7.25 points, or 0.07%

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly after the opening bell in New York, December 28, 2src15. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly after the opening bell in New York, December 28, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

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Compressor Market

Compressor Oil Market 2020 – 2024: Post-Pandemic Industry Planning Structure | Technavio – Benzinga

Shape strategic responses through the phases of industry recovery

Exxon Mobil Corp., FUCHS PETROLUB SE, PJSC LUKOIL, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total SA, and Valvoline Inc. will emerge as major compressor oil market participants during 2020-2024

The compressor oil market is expected to grow by USD 1.069 billion during 2020-2024, according to Technavio. The report offers a detailed analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the compressor oil market in optimistic, probable, and pessimistic forecast scenarios.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here:

Technavio has announced its latest market research report titled Global Compressor Oil Market 2src2src-2src24 (Graphic: Business Wire)

Technavio has announced its latest market research report titled Global Compressor Oil Market 2020-2024 (Graphic: Business Wire)

The compressor oil market will witness Negative and Inferior impact during the forecast period owing to the widespread growth of the COVID-19 pandemic. As per Technavio’s pandemic-focused market research, market growth is likely to Decrease as compared to 2019.

Enterprises will go through Respond, Recover and Renew phases. Download free report sample

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread, organizations across the globe are gradually flattening their recessionary curve by leveraging technology. Many businesses will go through respond, recover and renew phases. Building business resilience and enabling agility will aid organizations to move forward in their journey out of the COVID-19 crisis and towards the Next Normal.

This post-pandemic business planning research will aid clients to:

  • Adjust their strategic planning to move ahead once business stability kicks in.
  • Build Resilience by making effective resource and investment choices for individual business units, products and service lines.
  • Conceptualize scenario-based planning to mitigate future crisis situations.

Download the Post-Pandemic Business Planning Structure. Click here

Key Considerations for Market Forecast:

  • Impact of lockdowns, supply chain disruptions, demand destruction, and change in customer behavior
  • Optimistic, probable, and pessimistic scenarios for all markets as the impact of pandemic unfolds
  • Pre- as well as post-COVID-19 market estimates
  • Quarterly impact analysis and updates on market estimates

Gain instant access to 17,000+ market research reports by using

Technavio’s SUBSCRIPTION platform

Major Three Compressor Oil Market Participants:

Exxon Mobil Corp.

Exxon Mobil Corp. operates its business under various segments such as upstream, downstream, and chemical. The company offers Mobil SHC Rarus Series, Mobil Rarus SHC 1020 Series, Mobil Rarus SHC 1020 Series, Mobil Rarus 800 Series, and Mobil Rarus 400 Series compressor oil.


FUCHS PETROLUB SE operates its business in EMEA, Asia-Pacific, and North and South America. The company offers RENOLIN 503, RENOLIN 504, RENOLIN 505, RENOLIN 506, and RENOLIN LPG 185 compressor oil amongst others.


PJSC LUKOIL has business operations under various segments, namely exploration and production; refining, marketing, and distribution; and corporate and other. The company offers RRENOLIN Unisyn OL and NAVISYN DE 100 compressor oil.

If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE! Get report snapshot here to get detailed market share analysis of market participants during COVID-19 lockdown: compressor oil market-industry-analysis

Compressor Oil Market 2020-2024: Segmentation

Compressor Oil is segmented as below:

  • End-user

    • Industrial machinery
    • Oil and gas
    • Power
    • Automotive
    • Others
  • Geography

    • North America
    • Europe
    • APAC
    • MEA
    • South America

The compressor oil market is driven by increasing investments in oil and gas E&P activity. In addition, other factors such as rising environmental concerns and stringent safety regulations is expected to trigger the compressor oil market toward witnessing a CAGR of about 2% during the forecast period.

Get more insights about the global trends impacting the future of compressor oil market, Request Free Sample @

Market Drivers

Market Challenges

Market Trends

Vendor Landscape

  • Vendors covered
  • Vendor classification
  • Market positioning of vendors
  • Competitive scenario

About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focus on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio’s report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio’s comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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Hitting Market

IPO like it’s 1999: Market hitting dot-com-boom levels as Snowflake and other cloud-software stocks keep popping – MarketWatch

Therese Poletti’s Tech Tales

First-day returns for market debuts are at their highest level since the bubble, professor says, and that data doesn’t include Snowflake and the rest of this week’s big software debuts

MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto

As the importance of cloud software has grown in the global pandemic, cloud-software companies have become the most stark example of initial public offerings reaching dot-com-boom levels — and beyond.

Two cloud-software companies debuted in a storied day Wednesday on Wall Street, ringing the bell on their respective exchanges virtually and then seeing their shares soar in a way that would have stood out even in 1999. Snowflake Inc.

pulled in a record amount for a software company, and shares soared nearly 112% in their first day on the New York Stock Exchange to a market valuation of more than $70 billion. DealLogic said Snowflake had the largest valuation of a company to double its price in a market debut, based on data stretching back to 1995.

Matthew Kennedy, a senior market strategist at Renaissance Capital, which manages two IPO-focused ETFs

said there has not been an IPO that raised more than $1 billion to double in its first trading day since 2000; Snowflake likely raised more than $4 billion. The closest comparisons this year, he said, would be BigCommerce Holdings
which soared 201% in August, and nCino Inc.

which jumped 195% in July.

Snowflake was not alone in the software sector this week. JFrog Ltd.
a service that lets companies quickly and seamlessly release their software upgrades to all their users and/or employees, debuted Wednesday on the Nasdaq. Like Snowflake, the company increased its IPO range and priced above the elevated target, then saw shares jump in their debut, though to a lesser degree. Later Wednesday, cloud-based AI software developer Sumo Logic Inc.

 priced its IPO higher than the projected range, and shares jumped more than 20% at the open Thursday, and Unity Software Inc.

 , a platform for developing 3-D content, including videogames, is expected to price Thursday evening.

For more: Snowflake was red-hot and JFrog took a big jump in market debuts

In the case of Snowflake, investors clearly were excited by the company’s market, where its cloud-based data platform competes with both cloud-service providers and legacy database software companies like Oracle Corp.
They also were excited to be part of a deal alongside Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Corp.


— typically averse to both technology companies and IPOs — as well as Inc.
Both companies bought 250 million shares at the IPO price, while Berkshire bought 4 million more shares from Snowflake’s former chief executive.

See also: Five things to know about Snowflake’s record software IPO

The COVID-19 pandemic has also provided a boost for cloud-software companies, as companies seek to roll out and strengthen already existing relationships with companies that can help employees maintain productivity while working from home. JFrog, like Zoom Video Inc.
has seen a huge surge of interest in the pandemic, though executives said it is taking longer to close deals. JFrog’s 5,800 paying customers range from giant tech companies like Microsoft Corp.

 to financial institutions like American Express Co.

  and Morgan Stanley

 to industrial firms.

“Software is becoming a really integral part of our lives, and COVID just crystallized the need for digital transformation,” Jacob Shulman, chief financial officer of JFrog, told MarketWatch in an interview Wednesday afternoon. “That’s where our products help customers.”

It isn’t just software, though — the IPO market has been on a major tear this year. Jay Ritter, a Cordell eminent scholar in the department of finance at the University of Florida, said that excluding this week, the first-day returns of IPOs so far this year were averaging about 42% — “the highest average since the internet bubble.”

One big difference from the companies that went public in 1999-2000, Ritter noted, is that many of those young internet companies had very little revenue.

“Whereas this year almost all the tech companies, like Snowflake, have significant sales,” he said. “They are older, they have demonstrated they have a product or a service that sells and while many of them aren’t profitable yet, they have demonstrated they are not just vaporware.”

From 2015: Why this tech boom is different than the dot-com bubble

Ritter pointed out that Snowflake is also realizing another near-record: For money left on the table by the company, referring to the gap between the funds raised in the offering that go to the company, and the surge in the stock after it has begun trading in the open market.

“It looks like it will be in the $4 billion vicinity, just after Visa,” which left $5.075 billion on the table in its 2008 IPO of 406 million shares, Ritter said. Snowflake only offered 28 million shares.

“The market is really paying up for growth,” Ritter said. “Is the market paying too much? It’s really difficult to argue that they are paying too little.”

For investors who want in on these high-flying cloud companies, it is impossible to pay less. But that feels a whole lot like the hysteria for young tech companies and their promises of growth back in 1999.

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Market Stock

Is the Stock Market Open Today? Here Are the Hours for Labor Day 2020. – Barron’s

Text size

(Photo credit should read BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP/Getty Images)

Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty Images

After a wild week of trading that saw major indexes plunge, investors will get a much-needed break this Labor Day weekend.

While the week started off quietly enough, the three major indexes suffered their worst day since mid-June on Thursday, with the

S&P 500

dipping 3.5%, the

Dow Jones Industrial Average

falling 2.8%, and the

Nasdaq Composite

dropping 5%. Friday was a bumpy ride as well, with indexes dropping in the morning before largely recovering by the end of the day. At Friday’s close, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq were down 0.8%, 0.6%, and 1.3%, respectively.

Labor Day became a federal holiday in 1894 when President Grover Cleveland made the first Monday of every September a celebration of workers and their achievements. Even with Covid-19 canceling certain festivities this year like Labor Day parades, investors will still be able to enjoy other socially distanced Labor Day activities, including taking advantage of the many Labor Day sales at retailers like


(ticker: LOW) and

Home Depot

(HD), this weekend—and into Monday as well. Major U.S. stock exchanges are closed in observation of Labor Day 2020 on Sept. 7.

Below, find which exchanges are open and their hours—and which are closed—on Labor Day.

Is the stock market open on Labor Day 2020?

The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are both closed on Monday in recognition of Labor Day. Some CME Globex futures and options trading will also be closed on Monday, while the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association recommends that markets for government bonds and other fixed-income securities close for the holiday.

Are International Stock Markets Closed on Memorial Day?Most international markets are open, including the

London Stock Exchange,

the Mexican Stock Exchange, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the

Singapore Exchange,


Japan Exchange Group,

and the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The Toronto Stock Exchange, however, is closed.

Write to

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Market Stock

Stock Market Sell-Off Continues: Dow Plunges 400 Points, S&P 500 Falls 1.7% – Forbes


The stock market opened slightly higher on Friday but quickly turned negative despite a solid August jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate fell more than expected as the U.S. added 1.4 million jobs last month.

New York Stock Market Plunges More Than 8srcsrc Points

Stocks continued to plunge following Thursday’s sell-off.

Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images


The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.5%, over 400 points, on Friday, while the S&P 500 fell 1.9% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 3%.

Stocks initially moved higher after the release of the latest monthly jobs report: The U.S. added 1.4 million jobs in August, according to the Labor Department.

The unemployment rate fell to 8.4% last month from 10.2% in July (economists were expecting the rate to decline to 9.8% in August).

While the new data shows that the labor market is making modest gains, the pace of recovery has slowed significantly thanks to the expiration of federal stimulus benefits.

The market turned negative, however, as tech stocks remained under pressure following their steep sell-off on Thursday: Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet were all down in early trading.

Shares of both Apple and Tesla, which fell by between 8% and 9% on Thursday, continued to struggle on Friday, just days after both companies completed stock splits.

crucial quote

“Today’s [jobs] report is another sign that the recovery in the labor market is nearing the point of exhaustion and should signal to lawmakers that another round of fiscal stimulus will be needed to keep the economic recovery on track,” says Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management.

Key background

Friday’s session follows a sharp sell-off on Wall Street: The market tanked on Thursday, posting its worst day since June as stocks retreated from record highs and tech shares plunged. The Dow slid 2.8%—more than 800 points, while the S&P fell 3.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 5%. Shares of Big Tech companies, which have been instrumental in leading the market’s rebound over the past few months, dragged the market lower on Thursday as the tech sector had its worst day since March. Before Thursday’s sell-off, stocks had made a strong start to September, despite it being a historically bad month for markets.

Further reading

Stock Market Sell-Off: Dow Plunges 800 Points, S&P 500 Falls 3.5% (Forbes)

The U.S. Added 1.4 Million Jobs In August, But The Recovery Is Slowing Down (Forbes)

Stocks Just Had The Best August Since 1984, But History Shows Trouble Is On The Way (Forbes)

Robinhood Reportedly Hit By SEC Fraud Probe, Possible Fine Of Over $10 Million (Forbes)

Full coverage and live updates on the Coronavirus

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Market Stock

Stock market bloodbath: Dow and Nasdaq plunge – CNN

New York (CNN Business)It’s a wild day on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) tumbled 4.5% and the Dow fell nearly 700 points in the early afternoon, as investors made a dash for the exits following a streak of record-setting days over the past several weeks.

It’s shaping up to be the worst day for stocks since June.
Stocks erased all their gains after a huge bout of exuberance Wednesday, when the S&P 500 — the broadest measure of Wall Street — and the Nasdaq hit yet another record high. The Nasdaq had also climbed above 12,000 points for the first time in history Wednesday.
In the early afternoon, all three major indexes remained sharply in the red. The Dow was down 2.4%, or nearly 700 points, and the S&P fell 3.2%.
So, what’s happening?
For one, the Nasdaq has been outperforming the other two major stock indexes — the Dow (INDU) and the S&P 500 (SPX) — for months. The rally has been going on for long enough that investors are now taking profit.
Even so, the Nasdaq remains up nearly 30% in 2020, still far outpacing its counterparts.
“Although there is no single driver for the weakness, it seems as if investors all of a sudden realized how overbought stocks are and sold. Someone yelled fire in a crowded theater and everyone left at once,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, in emailed comments.
But there are also technical reasons for Thursday’s decline: As US-China relations sour, investors are moving money out of tech, which could get hit the hardest from a potential increase in tariffs.
“The Nasdaq is getting hit hard with the continued rotation into cyclicals and expectations big-tech will ultimately pay the cost to a further deterioration with US-Chinese relations,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.
Stocks in cyclical sectors are also expected to perform better as the economy is recovering.
The Big Tech companies such as Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), all of which are part of the Nasdaq, have become the safe-haven investment of the summer. But investors have beginning to wonder when the rally will run out of steam, either because of increased regulation or because the economy as a whole picks up enough to void the need for safety picks altogether.
“It’s a bit of a wake-up call, which isn’t the worst thing in the world. Markets go up and down,” JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told CNN Business.
Given the summer rally, it’s “perfectly normal,” to see tech stocks readjusting a bit, Detrick said.
And even investors who are still faithful to their safe tech holdings have reason to be a little concerned: Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious diseases, told CNN Thursday that a Covid-19 vaccine by October remained “unlikely,” though it was possible.
Making matters worse, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said late Wednesday that “the cooperative spirit we had in March and April” on Capitol Hill has “dissipated as we move closer and closer to the election.” This doesn’t bode well for Congress agreeing on another stimulus bill, which the market has been hoping for.

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Housing Market

The Housing Market Isn’t Booming For Everyone: Four Numbers That Sum It All Up – Forbes

House with SOLD notice


As the coronavirus pandemic took hold in the United States, mortgage rates plummeted as the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near zero. Those rock-bottom borrowing rates helped prop up the housing market during the worst of the economic slowdown in the spring and fueled tremendous growth in July. 

While it may be a hot time to buy for some, Americans on the lower end of the income spectrum are struggling. Here are four numbers that shed light on the bifurcated housing market. 


That’s how much existing home sales—a measure of reselling activity for previously owned homes—rose from June to July, according to the National Association of Realtors. It’s the highest rate since December 2006. 


That’s the current rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage, according to data released yesterday by federal mortgage investor Freddie Mac, down from 3.55% a year ago. The 30-year rate hit a low of 2.88% two weeks ago and has crept back up since then.


That’s how much mortgage applications have fallen since last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, in part because of slightly higher rates. 


That’s how many more people were at least 90 days behind on their mortgage in July compared to June—a 20% increase—according to the Washington Post. While mortgage delinquencies overall are down, serious delinquencies have reached a 10-year high, indicating that economic stress from other areas is seeping into the housing market.

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Market underpricing

The market is underpricing the possibility of a vaccine, Goldman Sachs strategists say – MarketWatch

The Tell

Tech stock leadership could be in jeopardy from successful vaccine news

French engineer-virologist Thomas Mollet looks at 24 well plates adherent cells monolayer infected with a SARS-CoV-2 virus at the Biosafety level 3 laboratory of the Valneva SE Group headquarters in Saint-Herblain, near Nantes, France, on July 30, 2020.

jean-francois monier/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The market is underpricing the possibility of a vaccine, Goldman Sachs strategists say.

Forecasts are assuming a nearly 40% chance of a vaccine being broadly available by the first quarter of 2021, and the strategists, led by Kamakshya Trivedi, say there is a good chance that at least one vaccine will be approved by the Food and Drug Administration by the end of November and broadly distributed by the middle of 2021. “This kind of timeline could see a substantial boost to GDP [gross domestic product] relative to a ‘no-vaccine’ case, particularly for the U.S., which is likely to lead the vaccine race and is likely to experience worse outcomes than in Europe without a vaccine,” the strategists say.

The steep rise in vaccine probabilities is one key reason that the equity market has managed to make new highs even without definitive improvement in U.S. health outcomes, the strategists add, with the other reason being the fall in inflation-adjusted bond yields.

The S&P 500

has climbed 49% from its March lows, and the technology-led Nasdaq Composite

has registered 31 records this year.

The current equity market level is consistent, they say, with a 60% chance of no vaccine.

“On these estimates, options markets may be underpricing the fatness of both ‘tails,’ especially the upside case. Out-of-the-money call options on the S&P 500 (and some other indices) still look attractively priced given our view of the vaccine timeline outcomes,” they say.

The strategists also say the U.S. election is being underappreciated, not for its impact on domestic policy but for international relations. The “international implications both in the run-up to the election and beyond will be equally important for market direction in coming months,” they say. While the slow-motion decoupling of the U.S. and China will probably continue regardless of who wins, “a Biden administration would likely use different tactics, including more cooperation with traditional allies and less aggressive use of tariffs.” This, in turn, could lead to another leg of the dollar

falling, particularly against the yuan

A vaccine could spark a renewed rotation toward traditional cyclicals, steeper bond-market yield curves, and outperformance in emerging market currencies and equities. “We suspect that it is still too early to position aggressively for that shift, but think that options exposure in some of these areas may already make sense,” they say.

School reopening risks, they add, may continue the theme of low real rates, tech leadership, and the defensive rally of the past month. “But with some of these moves getting stretched, investors should be open-minded about the possibility of a shift in leadership across global markets in the months beyond, especially if the news flow on the vaccine front continues to be encouraging,” the strategists said.

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