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Biden Polls

Polls: Joe Biden leads Trump in several key swing states – Vox.com

In a new batch of swing-state polling released this weekend by the New York Times and CBS News, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in several key states with just 51 days to go until the November election.

Specifically, a New York Times/Siena College poll taken from September 8 to 10 shows Biden retaining his lead with likely voters in four important states: Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. Likewise, a CBS News/YouGov survey conducted from September 9 to 11 gives the former vice president the edge among likely voters in both Minnesota and Arizona.

In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire; Trump won Arizona and Wisconsin.

This time around, the GOP has indicated they’re playing to win in Minnesota. “In 2016 I almost won Minnesota,” Trump tweeted last year. “In 2020, because of America hating anti-Semite Rep. Omar, & the fact that Minnesota is having its best economic year ever, I will win the State!” His campaign has followed that bluster with a $14 million advertising push in the state, larger than their buys in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin.

However, the New York Times and CBS polls would appear to throw some cold water on Trump’s Minnesota ambitions: While Clinton eked out a narrow win by less than 2 percent in 2016, both the New York Times and CBS show Biden leading Trump by 9 percentage points.

The same polls suggest Trump is in danger of ceding Arizona and Wisconsin to Biden in November. CBS reports Biden narrowly leads Trump by 3 percentage points in Arizona, and according to the New York Times poll, Biden is up by 5 percentage points in Wisconsin.

In Nevada, where Trump held a rally on Saturday, Biden also has a small lead of 4 percentage points — but Chuck Rocha, a former adviser to the Bernie Sanders campaign, says that Democrats need to take the state more seriously, or that might change:

“What’s underreported right [now] is the problem in Nevada,” Rocha said. “The entire Culinary Union is laid off. The entire [Las Vegas] strip is shut down, for the most part. So there’s astronomical unemployment there.”

Rocha said Democrats have not been sensitive enough to the economic hardship that has affected the area — and that has impacted Latinx voters particularly hard. To win the state, he said, Biden will have to present a clear plan of how his policy vision will help those who need work, and income, right now.

According to NBC News, the Trump campaign does not see Nevada as a sure thing for Biden, either. In fact, Trump campaign officials view Nevada as part of an “alternate route” to winning 270 electoral votes, should the president lose some of the states that handed him victory in 2016.

New Hampshire, a 2016 squeaker that went for Clinton by just three-tenths of a percent, is also part of that “alternative route” strategy. The New York Times/Siena College poll shows Biden with a 3 percentage point lead there, but Trump made a point of holding rallies in the state, which has a Republican governor, shortly after wrapping up the Republican National Convention last month.

Overall, these polls contain good news for Biden — but many of his leads, like those in New Hampshire and Arizona, are narrow ones, suggesting there is still room for the president to swing opinion his way.

A mostly stable race

Looking beyond the particulars of any one poll, polling for the 2020 presidential race has been largely stable. Nationally, Biden leads Trump by an average of about 7.3 percentage points, and he has retained a consistent lead in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. These latest results fall in line with these standing trends.

And Biden’s national average also squares with a recent Fox News poll of likely voters, which shows Biden with a slightly smaller lead versus Trump — just 5 percentage points — but a solid advantage on most issues, including racial inequality, the pandemic, health care, the courts, immigration, and policing. Only on the economy did likely voters have more faith in Trump, by a margin of 5 percentage points.

One possible reason for the consistency seen in polling is that surveys have suggested there are fewer undecided voters than there were in 2016. According to CNN, just 13 percent of registered voters either haven’t decided or are still open to changing their minds, and a Quinnipiac University poll from earlier this month found that only 3 percent of likely voters were still undecided.

That’s likely not good news for Trump, who did well with late-breaking undecided voters in 2016 but has far more ground to make up this time around with a smaller pool of undecideds. As CNN’s John Harwood points out, Biden is also quite a bit more popular than Clinton was in 2016, while the majority of Americans still dislike Trump.

Of course, polling isn’t prophecy. As my colleague Li Zhou has explained previously, polls only really “capture public sentiment during a moment in time,” and things could still change, especially with three presidential debates yet to come. And given one needs only to win the electoral college rather than the popular vote, a candidate winning over even a portion of a group that may have traditionally voted for his rival could have an outsized effect on results.

In this particular moment in time, though, Biden looks to be in a strong spot ahead of the November election.


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Polls shows

Polls shows dead even race in Georgia between Trump, Biden; GOP leads Senate races – Fox News

It’s been nearly three decades since a Democrat won Georgia in a presidential election.

Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton carried the state in the 1992 election.

But a new poll in Georgia indicates the state’s 16 electoral votes are up for grabs in the race between President Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

WHAT THE LATEST FOX NEWS POLLS IN THE BIDEN-TRUMP RACE SHOW

According to a Monmouth University poll conducted July 23-27 and released on Wednesday, the president and the presumptive Democratic nominee are deadlocked at 47 percent among registered voters in Georgia, with 3 percent saying they’ll vote for Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen and 3 percent undecided.

The poll shows that among the smaller pool of voters likely to vote in the general election, Trump has the slight edge. A high turnout likely model indicates the president with 48 percent support and Biden at 47 percent. A low likely turnout projection shows Trump at 49 percent support and the former vice president at 46 percent.

An average of the most recent polls conducted in Georgia compiled by Real Clear Politics indicates the president with a narrow 2.3 percent edge.

Trump won Georgia by 5 percentage points over 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

“There is a lot of parity between the two candidates. Trump has a lock on his base but Biden is performing much better than Clinton did in key swing areas,” Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray highlighted.

While the polls show a close contest in Georgia, the Biden campaign has not – to date – gone up with commercials in the state, according to Advertising Analytics, a leading political ad tracking firm.

MAJOR PRO-GOP OUTSIDE GROUP POURS MONEY INTO INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE GEORGIA

In Georgia’s regularly scheduled Senate election, the survey shows Republican incumbent David Perdue holding a 49-43 percent advantage over Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, who narrowly lost a 2017 special congressional election that was the most expensive House election in history.

There’s also a special Senate election on Nov. 3 in the race to fill the final two years of the term of former Republican Sen. John Isakson, who stepped down in December due to health reasons.

GOP Gov. Brian Kemp named Republican Kelly Loeffler as Isakson’s temporary replacement. She’s running in the November election to fill the rest of Isakson’s term. So is Republican Rep. Doug Collins, who President Trump had hoped would be appointed as Isakson’s temporary replacement. A number of Democrats are also running.

The poll indicates Loeffler leading the pack at 26 percent, followed by Collins at 20 percent. Democrat Matt Lieberman – the son of former Democrat turned independent Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut – is third at 14 percent.

If no candidate tops 50 percent in the Nov. 3 special election, a runoff contest between the top two finishers will be held on Jan. 5.

Monmouth University used live telephone operators to question 402 registered voters in Georgia. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

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Biden Polls

CNN Poll of Polls: Biden maintains double-digit lead over Trump nationally, with coronavirus a top issue – CNN

(CNN)Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a significant 12-point margin nationally, according to a CNN Poll of Polls released Monday.

Biden garners 52% support among registered voters, with 40% supporting Trump.
The poll of polls includes the five most recent national telephone polls measuring the views of registered voters. The polls were all taken as coronavirus cases in the United States continue to rise, and the President maintains that the situation is under control while calling for a complete reopening of the economy and schools.
The ongoing outbreak is giving Biden a big advantage in the general election, with recent polling showing voter preference for his approach to the issue.
Almost 3 in 10 (29%) of voters in a Fox News poll released Sunday said coronavirus is the most important issue facing the country, well ahead of any other issue named by poll respondents. Fifteen percent of respondents said the economy is the most important issue and 10% said it was issues surrouding race relations, race issues and the police.
A majority in the polls released find Americans overall trust Biden over Trump to handle the coronavirus outbreak. Fifty-four percent say they trust Biden while 34% trust Trump, a 20-point edge, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Approval of Trump’s handling of coronavirus has also gone down — 37% of voters approved and 59% disapproved, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll last week. In June, 43% voters approved of his handling of the pandemic while 55% disapproved.
The CNN Poll of Polls is an average of the five most recent non-partisan, live operator, national telephone surveys on the general election matchup between Biden and Trump among registered voters. The poll of polls includes results from the Fox News poll conducted July 12-15, the Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted July 12-15, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 9-12, the Quinnipiac University poll (undefined) conducted July 9-13 and the Monmouth University poll conducted June 26-30. The poll of polls does not have a margin of sampling error.

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Finds Polls

CNN Poll of Polls finds Biden leading Trump – CNN

(CNN)A new CNN Poll of Polls shows 51% of registered voters nationwide back former Vice President Joe Biden, while 41% support President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential race.

The poll of polls includes the five most recent national telephone polls measuring the views of registered voters.
The new numbers represent a shift in Biden’s favor since April, when the CNN Poll of Polls found support for Biden averaging 48%, while Trump averaged 43% support.
Three of the polls were conducted after the killing of George Floyd, which has sparked protests in Minneapolis and around the US over police brutality and racism against black Americans. The other two polls were conducted in May, as the country struggled with the coronavirus pandemic and debated whether the country should stay closed for the sake of the public health or reopen to boost the economy.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll found a decline in approval over how Trump is handling the coronavirus. In March, 51% approved while 45% disapprove. Now, 46% approve and 53% disapprove.
A new poll out from NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College on Friday found most Americans (67%) think Trump’s response to the demonstrations has increased tensions, while 18% think he has helped decrease them.
Most Democrats (92%) and independents (73%) say that Trump’s response has largely inflamed tensions rather than soothed them. Republicans, for their part, don’t uniformly see the President as someone who has decreased tensions. A plurality of Republicans (41%) say the President has done so, but 29% say he has increased tensions and 30% say they’re just not sure what his response has done.
A Monmouth University national poll, out Wednesday and included in the Poll of Polls, found more voters trust Biden to handle race relations over Trump. A majority of registered voters (52%) said they had a great deal or some confidence in Biden to handle race relations while 40% said the same of Trump.
However, almost half (49%) of voters reported race relations wouldn’t be a factor in their vote for president this year — with 33% saying it would be a major factor and 17% a minor factor.
The CNN Poll of Polls is an average of the five most recent non-partisan, live-operator, national surveys on the general election matchup between Biden and Trump among registered voters. The Poll of Polls includes results from the NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College poll conducted June 2 and 3, the Monmouth University poll conducted May 28 to June 1, the ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted May 25 to 28, the Fox News poll conducted May 17 to 20 and the Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 14 to 18. The Poll of Polls does not have a margin of sampling error.
This story has been updated to include the PBS Newshour/Marist College poll.

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About Polls

What the Polls Say About A Mitch McConnell vs. Amy McGrath Kentucky Senate Race – Newsweek

The Kentucky Senate race between Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his likely Democratic opponent Amy McGrath is shaping up to be one of the tightest, most contentious and expensive contests of the 2020 election cycle.

Polls have shown the race to be incredibly close, with the candidates either being tied or separated by single digits.

In a Change Research poll conducted earlier this year, McGrath and McConnell were deadlocked at 41 percent support among likely voters. In another survey from Garin-Hart-Yang, McConnell was ahead of McGrath by 3 percentage points—although his victory was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Still, it could be too early to tell—for now, nonpartisan election forecasters estimate that the race will go to McConnell. The Cook Political Report has rated the election as “likely Republican.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia has also favored the contest as “safely Republican.”

Before she can take McConnell head-on, McGrath still has to win the state’s Democratic primary. There are still two other candidates in the running, progressive farmer Mike Broihier and state representative Charles Booker. The contest was scheduled for May has been pushed back to June 23 because of the coronavirus pandemic.

She’s also the most prolific fundraisers among Democrats with more than $14 million cash on hand. She even outraised McConnell by more than $5 million in the first three months of 2020, according to the latest federal campaign finance data.

So far this year, McGrath hauled in $12.8 million in contributions compared with McConnell’s $7.8 million. McConnell still has roughly the same amount of cash on hand as McGrath, with $14.8 million in the bank.

mcconnell news briefing DC April 2src2src
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) speaks during a news briefing at the U.S. Capitol April 21, 2020, in Washington, D.C. McConnell is likely to face his toughest re-election campaign in over a decade against Democrat Amy McGrath.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty

The massive amount of fundraising has spurred an ad war between McConnell and McGrath that dates back to the summer of 2019—an entire year before Election Day. McConnell’s latest ad, which aired statewide, slammed McGrath and touted his work on the coronavirus relief packages.

“Amy McGrath attacks Mitch McConnell for leading passage of the biggest economic rescue in American history. But while McGrath attacks, Mitch is working across the aisle to get hundreds of millions in federal dollars for Kentucky’s hospitals,” a narrator said in the video. “McGrath attacks. Mitch McConnell leads.”

McGrath fired back with an ad of her own, in which she called out McConnell’s controversial comment on favoring state bankruptcy amid the pandemic. The top Senate Republican has been under fire from governors on both sides of the aisle after he floated the idea of states declaring bankruptcy rather than passing another half-trillion-dollar coronavirus bill.

“Special interests win, we lose,” the narrator said in the 30-second ad.

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